A Fox News survey released Thursday has Biden and Trump with 48 percent apiece, and a Roanoke College poll late last month had them both at 42 percent. While some independent analysts say they have trouble squaring those polls with other surveys showing a tight race nationwide, they nevertheless see potential warning signs for Biden.
“I think it’s another signal that they have their work cut out for them,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist and self-described polling skeptic, referring to Biden’s campaign. “Whether the numbers are fully accurate or not, you do get a general indication of what’s happening. … Things are not going well for Joe Biden. They’re just not.”
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), appearing on CNN on Thursday, called the Fox poll “pretty stunning” given Biden’s 10-point win in 2020.
“Americans and Virginians are ready for strong leadership back in the White House,” he said.
Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for Trump’s campaign, also cheered the results.
“Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump dominating in every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play,” she said in a text message to The Washington Post. “President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day. Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan handicapper, rates Virginia and New Jersey as “Solid Democratic” states in this year’s presidential election, and Minnesota as “Likely Democratic.”
Virginia Democratic Party Chairwoman Susan Swecker expressed confidence in Biden’s ability to win the state, noting the campaign’s investments in Virginia, including with six campaign offices around the state and more to come. So far, Trump’s campaign has not announced any Virginia-based offices and did not respond to an inquiry about whether it has opened any or has plans to do so.
“It really doesn’t matter to me what any poll says at any time,” Swecker said. “We know what our job is. We know what is at stake. And we’re just laser-focused on that.”
Nathan L. Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, said it is hard to understand how Biden could be tied with Trump in Virginia if polls also show him running even or just behind Trump nationally and in polls of undisputed battleground states. If the race is that close in Virginia, he said, he would expect Trump to be running away with the race in the swing states.
“It’s hard to line up these Virginia results with what we’re seeing around the country,” he said. “It’s not impossible, but that would mean the current battleground states are a lost cause for Biden and I think it’s too early to declare that.”
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said if Virginia winds up being in play, it will be because Trump is winning in a landslide.
“We wouldn’t be talking about Virginia as the state that’s deciding the election,” he said. “It would be, ‘Hey, this is 1980 again and the bottom’s dropping out for Jimmy Carter.’”
Trump has never enjoyed widespread popularity in the commonwealth, where his “drain the swamp” mantra played especially poorly in the Northern Virginia suburbs that are home to much of the federal workforce. He lost the state by more than 5 points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and he did not seriously campaign in the state in 2020. His one campaign appearance in 2020 was aimed at the North Carolina media market.
While Trump was in office, anti-Trump sentiment allowed Democrats to gain full control of state government in 2019 for the first time in a generation.
Virginia reverted to its more typical purple tendencies a year after Biden assumed the presidency, helping Youngkin narrowly win the Executive Mansion in 2021. But Youngkin did so by walking a tightrope with Trump, leaning into some MAGA “culture war” issues but with a softer style that helped him sell himself as a moderate to swing voters.
“I think 2021 definitely reminded us that while the state definitely is bluish, it is not a Democratic stronghold,” said Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. “And when I think about where we are politically today and compare it to what things looked like in 2021, it feels very familiar.”
Walter recalled that Biden’s numbers had tumbled by then and that there had been “a real lack of enthusiasm among Democratic base voters” for Youngkin’s rival, former governor Terry McAuliffe.
“The big difference, of course, is that Donald Trump is not Glenn Youngkin and the ability for him to improve his numbers in some of these suburban areas is going to be very, very tough,” she said. “It’s really more of, do those people stay home — and I will suspect they will not once we get to the fall.”
Trump has solidified his support among Republicans since 2016, when he won the state’s crowded primary with less than 35 percent of the vote. He took 63 percent of this year’s primary vote, although nearly 245,000 voters cast their ballots in the March 5 contest for former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, who dropped out the next day.
“Trump has a Republican problem in Virginia,” said state Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth), a prominent legislator. “Where do you think those people are going to go?”
Scott Clement contributed to this report.